Macau’s gross gaming revenue fell 8% week-on-week to around MOP$243 million per day for the seven days from 13 to 19 September, “largely on volatile VIP” according to a note from brokerage Bernstein.
Providing its weekly channel checks, the brokerage estimates month-to-date GGR of MOP$4.8 billion (US$598 million), still 66% lower on a daily basis than in September 2019 but 76% higher than August as Macau continues its recovery from a recent outbreak of COVID-19 across much of mainland China.
VIP volumes are up by between 60% and 65% compared with August and by 70% and 80% in the mass market segment.
In the short-term, all eyes remain on the province of Fujian where a new outbreak has seen more than 300 cases of COVID-19 detected since 10 September. Given the outbreak has so far been contained within Fujian, Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Kelsey Zhu suggest the impact on Macau should be limited, as visitors from Fujian province only account for 5% of visits from mainland China.
However, “the new outbreak in Fujian may still hinder the recovery trajectory if contagion spreads to the rest of the country and travel restrictions in China are raised again,” they write.
“Assuming no new travel restrictions, we expect visitation to Macau to start getting back to April/May levels by October, if the local transmissions from Fujian do not spread to other provinces.”