Sometimes I’m criticized for being verbose, so I’ll keep this analysis succinct.
The Macau government’s estimate for Macau GGR for the 2022 calendar year was MOP$130 billion. Remember that number.
Earlier today, the DICJ announced the November GGR was a paltry MOP$3.0 billion, making Macau’s actual 2022 GGR for the first 11 months a total of MOP$38.7 billion.
Let’s extrapolate that number to a 12-month equivalent run rate: MOP$38.7 billion x 12/11 = MOP$42.2 billion (US$5.3 billion). Given we’re 11 months into the year, that will be a quite accurate estimate of the actual 2022 GGR.
That run rate as a percentage of the original government estimate is 42.2 billion divided by 130 billion which is a mere 32%! That’s just under one third of the original estimate — which itself was only 44% of 2019 (pre-pandemic) GGR.
Meanwhile, the state of Nevada just recorded its 20th month in a row with GGR well north of US$1 billion. Its revenue for the 10 months to October stands at US$12.3 billion, with a 12-month equivalent run rate of 12.3 billion x 12/10 = US$14.8 billion, nearly triple the Macau 2022 GGR run rate. Long gone are the days of Macau being five, six, seven times Las Vegas. These days it’s more like half of Las Vegas, and a third of Nevada as a whole.
And the government’s estimate for Macau GGR for 2023? MOP$130 billion. Does that number sound familiar?
