Macau’s gaming operators are unlikely to see any meaningful business levels return until at least October Golden Week – and possibly much longer according to analysts – after recording their lowest monthly revenue figure in almost two decades in July.
As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, gross gaming revenue reached just MOP$398 million (US$49 million) in July, also the lowest monthly revenue result of any time during the COVID-19 pandemic and just 1.6% of Macau-wide GGR back in July 2019.
In a note following publication of July GGR, JP Morgan analyst DS Kim said business will “likely remain bleak for a while until mainland visitors regain confidence to visit the city again.
“As such, we would only expect any meaningful business to return from the October Golden Week – assuming no more community outbreaks,” he explained.
Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong, Lok Kan Chan and Sardonna Fong offered a similar assessment, with August and September to stay weak.
“The border may only reopen after 14 days of zero domestic cases (that could potentially drag into mid-August) and the pace of GGR ramping up may also be slow as players’ confidence may have been impaired and could take time to rebuild,” they wrote.
“The players may choose not to return in the near term, fearing that they may not be able to return to their hometown if additional new cases are discovered.”
Fong, Chan and Fong said they don’t expect any meaningful improvement until 1Q23, suggesting investors steer clear of accumulating stocks until there are clearer signs of meaningful recovery.
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