Inside Asian Gaming

May 2008 | INSIDE ASIAN GAMING Casino Marketing Probability of “Player D”Winning $300,000 Name Game Hours Hands/Hour Average Bet HouseAdv. Theoretical Loss Player D B.J 20 100 $25,000 0.50% $50,000 Probability of Winning Probability of Losing Winning over % chance Actual Losing Over % chance Actual $0 44.49% $0 55.51% $323,000 30.96% -$323,000 41.31% $646,000 19.62% -$646,000 28.16% $969,000 11.24% $1,000,000 -$969,000 17.46% $1,292,000 5.80% -$1,292,000 9.77% $1,615,000 2.68% -$1,615,000 4.92% -$1,938,000 2.21% Patron’s Actual $1,000,000 90% Confidence -$1,612,296 to $1,362,296 Patron’s Chance of Winning Their Actual or More 10.6% casino. While “Player C” has the same profitability as “Player A”, the casino needs to take into account the added exposure to short term losses created by more volatile action. The following chart shows the probabilities of losing money to a high action player who bets $25,000 per hand of blackjack for 10 hours of play.What is the patron’s probability of winning during the designated session? What are his chances of winning one million dollars? These are questions managers should know before accepting this type of high action play. The casino has a 10.6% chance of losing over $1,000,000 to this patron over the session. This represents the casino’s VCL. Do you know your casino’s VCL? Good luck. Steve Karoul is a leading casino marketing consultant and a member of the Gerson Lehrman Group Council consulting on casinos. Steve can be reached by phone: (1-860) 536-1828 or email: [email protected]. You can also visit Steve’s website: www. euroasiacasino.com 47