Inside Asian Gaming

IAG APR 2023年4月 亞博匯 28 industry analysts of their short- term Macau forecasts. In a late February note, Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung and Stephen Grambling lifted their Macau GGR estimates for 2023 by 42% to US$22 billion – more than four times the amount earned in 2022 and representing recovery to almost two-thirds of 2019 levels. They also raised their EBITDA estimates by 70% to US$5.8 billion, citing better product mix and higher margins given the industry’s move away from junket VIP following China’s crackdown on the junket industry – highlighted by the recent trials of former Suncity Group CEO Alvin Chau and Tak Chun Group’s Levo Chan. While 2023 EBITDA estimates still lag the US$9.3 billion in Macau-wide profits earned in 2019, Morgan Stanley has 2024 EBITDApeggedat US$9.6billion, explaining that “revenue/profit for Macau companies came in ahead of our expectations in the first two months of the year. “However, we also find comfort in the sustainability of premium mass in the absence of junket business, which is important to achieve the pre- COVID level of EBITDA.” JP Morgan’s DS Kim began the year by upgrading his Macau forecasts the day after its 8 January reopening, noting his prediction that Q1 mass market GGR would recover to 35% of 1Q19 levels was likely “a bit too conservative”. That certainly seems true, with most industry experts now tipping mass GGR to reach around 65% of 1Q19 levels. In March, Kim again revised his Macau estimates to reflect GGR recovery to 50% of 2019 levels this year, climbing to 70% in 2024, with mass GGR to reach 90% of 2019 levels by the December 2023 quarter. Industry wide EBITDAwould equal pre-COVID EBITDA numbers by 2024 and exceed them in 2025, Kim added, also citing better gaming mix and lower operating costs. Adds Tash, “EBITDA- wise I think the [gaming] companies are going to be at 65% of what they used to do, of the US$9.5 billion they did in 2019, and they will easily do that, which will mean a healthy US$6 billion or US$6.5 billion this year. COVER STORY