Inside Asian Gaming

IAG JAN 2023年1月 亞博匯 14 MACAU POST- COVID EARNINGS TO BE STRONGER THAN PRE-COVID 澳門疫後收益將強於疫前 THE POST-COVID EARNINGS of Macau’s gaming operators will be stronger in 2023 than they were in 2019, buoyed by strong luxury spending by mainland visitors, pent-up demand, lower staffing costs and an improved gaming mix, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The positive outlook forms part of the investment bank’s latest earnings preview for 2023, with analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung adamant that gross gaming revenues will inflect on improved regional travel opportunities. Following eVisa resumption in November, Morgan Stanley believes China will now gradually move away from its COVID-zero policy and reopen all borders with Macau and Hong Kong, paving the way for mass market GGR to reach 91% of 2019 levels by 4Q23. More importantly, however, this will also help operators become more profitable by 2024 than they were in 2019. Among the key reasons for this, state Choudhary and Leung, is the fact that various types of luxury retail sales in mainland China have stayed more than 20% above 2019 levels, with Macau yet to enjoy the same benefits. “Historically, Macau mass revenue is strongly correlated with China nominal GDP, which is already 20% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019, and could be 35% higher than 2019 by 2024,” they write. “China discretionary retail sales and other more luxurious retail sales have stayed at more than 20% above the 2019 level since 2021.” The analysts also note that fixed opex, mainly staff costs, are currently 40% below 2019 levels with operators expecting 15% to 25% of this reduction to remain once fully operational again – translating to around US$500 million in annual savings. 摩根士丹利 分析師表示，受內地遊客強勁的奢侈品消費、被壓抑 的需求、較低的員工成本和改善的博彩組合之提振，澳門博彩營 運商疫後收入或較2019年更為強勁。 這是該投資銀行發佈對2023年最新收益預測的一部分，分 析師Praveen Choudhary和Gareth Leung認為，明年的博彩總收 入將受到區域旅遊機會改善的影響。 摩根士丹利認為，繼上個月恢復電子簽證後，內地在將逐漸 放棄清零政策，重開與澳門和香港的所有邊界，為中場GGR在第 四季度恢復至2019年水平的91%鋪平道路。 而更重要的是，此舉也將幫助營運商在2024年之前，實現 比2019年更高的盈利。 Choudhary和Leung指出，其中一個關鍵因素，是內地各種 類型的奢侈品零售銷售額都較2019年水平高出兩成以上，但澳門 並未從中獲益。 他們寫道：「從歷史上看，澳門中場收入與內地名義GDP息 息相關。2022年內地的名義GDP較2019年高出兩成，至2024年 可能較2019年高出35%。」 「自2021年以來，中國內地可自由支配的零售額和其他奢 侈品零售額保持在較2019年高出兩成以上的水平。」 分析師同時指出，固定運營支出（主要是員工成本）目前較 2019年水平低四成。運營商預計，一旦再次全面運營，這一降幅 中的15%至25%將保持不變，相當於每年節省約5億美元。 摩根士丹利預測2023年第一季度中場GGR恢復至2019年水 平37%，第二季度升至53%，第三季度回升至72%，第四季度 回升至91%，而2024年將全面恢復。 不過，分析師同時觀察到，可能證明這種樂觀前景出錯的因 素包括：進一步打擊類似博彩中介人的高端客群、高於預期的非 博彩投資要求、博彩區域潛在費用和更高的利率推動自由現金流 權益FCFE走低。