Inside Asian Gaming

IAG NOV 2022年11月 亞博匯 15 請登錄asgam.com訂閱《亞博匯早報》 Sign up to receive IAG Breakfast Briefing at asgam.com MACAU INDUSTRY DEBT NOW AT US$24 BILLION: MORGAN STANLEY 摩根史丹利：澳門產業債 務目前約為240億美元 THE INDUSTRY WIDE DEBT of Macau’s six casino concessionaires is estimated to have reached US$24 billion as of 30 September 2022, further impacted by another loss-making quarter on the back of China’s strict COVID-prevention measures, according to Morgan Stanley. In a note ahead of 3Q22 results season, the investment bank said it expects concessionaires to report a combined corporate EBITDA loss of US$603 million for the September quarter – the lowest since Individual Visit Scheme resumption in September 2020 – with US$1.5 billion in cash burn. This, according to analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung, raises industry net debt to US$24 billion – up from around US$5 billion at the start of the pandemic – even as the impending return of eVisas and package tours from mainland China brings some hope of improvement in Q4. Based on early estimates, 3Q22 GGR came in at around MOP$5.5 billion (US$680 million), down 35% on Q2 levels and just 8% of 3Q19, with mass revenue comprising MOP$4.5 billion (US$557 million) of that total. However, the analysts mused that Q4 looms as key to the industry’s recovery prospects. “October Golden Week visitation was in line with May Golden Week 2022, despite stricter COVID control measures,” they wrote. “Daily GGR of MOP$200 million (US$25 million) was also similar to May Golden Week, which is encouraging. “October GGR could be muted but we expect a gradual resumption of e-IVS visas and package tours to start from Nov 2022. This could drive 4Q22 EBITDA to 8% of 2019.” 根據 摩根史丹利的報告，截至2022年9月30日，澳門六家博企的 行業債務已經達到240億美元，主要由於進一步受到內地嚴格的 新冠疫情防控措施所影響。 這家投資銀行在第三季度財報預覽中表示，預計承批公司本 季度企業EBITDA合併虧損6.03億美元，這是自2020年9月個人 自由行恢復以來的最低水平——後者當時蒸發了15億美元。 分析師Praveen Choudhary和Gareth Leung表示，此舉令 行業淨債務從疫前初期的約50億美元上升至240億美元，但是內 地恢復電子簽證及旅行團的回歸令第四季度看到改善的曙光。 根據初步估計，2022年第3季總收入約為55億澳門元（6.8 億美元），較第2季度下跌35%，僅為2019年第3季的8%，其中 中場收入佔總額的45億澳門元（5.57億美元）。 然而，分析師們認為第四季度對該行業復甦前景至關重要。 他們寫道：「儘管採取了更為嚴格的疫情防控措施，但是10 月黃金週的遊客數量與2022年5月的黃金周持平。2億澳門幣的 日均GGR也與5月黃金周相似，令人感到鼓舞。」 「10月的GGR可能會放緩，但我們預計電子簽證和旅行團簽 將從2022年11月開始逐步恢復。這將推動第四季度的EBITDA恢 復至2019年水平的8%。」