Inside Asian Gaming

IAG JAN 2022年1月 亞博匯 75 We have observed this phenomenon in data around the globe; the typical player loses much more than the win rate suggests is likely, which is then balanced by a handful of patrons who win substantially more than expected. We recently worked with a major operator in Macau who expected to win HK$100 million from one junket room during a specific quarter but instead lost HK$200 million: a HK$300 million swing. Traditional casino math indicated that this HK$300 million swing should be a once in a century event. However, updating traditional casino math with the above skew illustrates that the risk of this HK$300 million swing should occur roughly once every five years! This vignette highlights the importance of outliers, and how they can shift the average and median win rates. 當我們考慮營收贏率，或者莊家或 玩家勝出賭注的機率時，分歧就開始出 現。營收贏率看起來仍像鐘形曲線，但 偏向一側。例如，在這次數據例子中， 最典型的玩家是每次下注都會輸掉超過 2%的賭注，但少數玩家能贏取不少賭 注，將平均贏率稀釋至0.8%左右（這次 數據例子以偏頗的二十一點例）。 我們在全球數據中都觀察到這種現 象；典型玩家所輸掉的金額遠較贏率所 指的多，因為有少數玩家所贏取的遠較 贏率所指的多，從而達致這贏率平衡。 我們最近與澳門的一家大型營運商合 作，該營運商預計在特定季度中從一間 貴賓廳贏取1億港元，但結果卻損失了2 億港元，出現了3億港元的波動。傳統的 娛樂場數學理論會指這3億港元的波動是 百年一遇的事件。然而，用上述的偏差 來更新傳統的娛樂場數學理論，就會發 現這3億港元的波動應該約每五年就會發 生一次！這個小插圖強調了異常值的重 要性，以及異常值如何改變贏率平均值 和中位數。 專欄