Inside Asian Gaming

IAG JAN 2022年1月 亞博匯 72 DECOMPOSINGWIN RATES Classical probability theory is based on casino gaming and games of chance. The industry has utilized this math to understand everything from variation in hold percentages to an individual player’s luck. Unfortunately, classical probability theory only explains the probability of winning an individual hand. In our view, applying these same methods to other win rates is a corruption. In the statistical world, classical probability theory describes data which is “normal”. If normal math had a flag, the bell-curve would be on it. Casino math, which is rooted in the probability of winning or losing a given hand, assumes win rates will follow a symmetrical bell-curve. By extension, the average must equal the median. This is true for the probability of winning a hand, but is not true for the win rate on turnover and is absolutely false for the hold percentages. With the benefit of bet tracking, we can observe this phenomenon directly. First, take the percent of hands won by the player. In Exhibit 1, the median and average are nearly identical. As an analyst, I could be confident that with more observations the average and median would converge. 分解贏率 經典概率論基於娛樂場遊戲和機會 遊戲。業界已經利用這數學原理來理解 一切事項，從儲留率的變化到單位玩家 的運氣。不幸的是，經典概率論只能解 釋單手牌的贏率。為我們而言，將相同 的方法應用於其他贏率是不行的。 在統計領域，經典概率論提及的是 「正常」的數據。在普通數學計算中如 有標記，就會出現在鐘形曲線上。娛樂 場的數學理論植根於每手牌贏或輸的概 率，並假設贏率遵循對稱的鐘形曲線。 通過延伸，平均值必須等於中位數。這 對於贏得一手牌的概率是正確的，但對 於營收贏率是不正確的，對於儲留率更 是絕對錯誤的。憑藉投注跟踪，我們可 以直接觀察到這現象。 首先，計算玩家獲勝回合的百分 比。在圖表一中，中位數和平均值幾乎 相同。作為一名分析師，我有信心隨著 更多的觀察，平均值和中位數將匯合。 COLUMNISTS