Inside Asian Gaming

IAG AUG 2021年8月 亞博匯 38 “But until we start to see those baccarat numbers return, I think it will be really tough for RWLV to be fully functional, fully robust and fully realising its promise.” According toa Junenote fromboutiquebrokerage Bernstein, gaming will only account for around 30% of RWLV revenue, and it boasts a key advantage via its relationship with Hilton which provides access to Hilton’s substantial global database. This, in turn, includes the ability to access groups, described as a “critically important visitor segment to Las Vegas that generally makes up 20% to 25% of business.” RevPar, Bernstein’s analysts add, should be at the higher end of the scale in Las Vegas, with further scope for expansion on site if required in the future. Nevertheless, gaming remains critical to the property’s success or failure. COVER STORY “The property should comp well with the top five properties in Las Vegas in terms of revenue and profit,” they wrote. “We see the competition as being largely Wynn, Venetian, Bellagio, Aria and The Cosmopolitan. Each of those properties generated in excess of US$350 million in EBITDA in 2019. Once ramped, we would expect RWLV to be able to generate EBITDA of between US$250 million (conservative) and the high-US$300 millions.” Maybank’s Yin is also forecasting annual EBITDA of around US$275 million, although “we’re not very sure if the EBITDA can cover costs like depreciation and interest expense,” he says. “If our reading of its filings is correct, RWLV was effectively 100% debt financed. Imagine 4.5% interest on US$4.3 billion of debt – that’s around US$200 million of interest expense to clear every year. The profitability threshold is high, in our view.