Inside Asian Gaming

IAG JAN 2021年1月 亞博匯 40 COVER STORY recent postponement of the application period for local governments, originally between 4 January and 31 July 2021 but now delayed approximately nine months to between 1 October 2021 and 28 April 2022. Joji Kokuryo, Managing Director of Japanese consulting firm Bay City Ventures, has been following the Japanese IR story for years. “Operators and local governments are generally in agreement that the joint planning process will need at least six months to do effectively,” he says. “This means local governments in Japan should be selecting their operators by the end of summer at the latest.” The next six to eight months are going to be a very busy time for prefectural governments. Each will need to begin their RFP processes as soon as possible in order to have selected their operator partner by say 3Q21 at the latest. On the subject of operator selection timing – we should consider that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Given the delays in the process so far, it would not be at all surprising if a reason arose to delay the entire process once more. Were that to happen, potential new entrants such as Tokyo, Aichi, Chiba, Hokkaido or even other locations would be much more likely to enter the fray. Once submissions are made to the national government, when will the winners ultimately be selected? And beyond that, when will the IR doors 關注日本IR的發展。「運營商和地方政府普遍認為，聯合規劃過程 至少需要6個月才能有效實施，」他表示，「這意味著日本地方政府 最遲須在夏末之前選出他們的營運商。」 而對地方政府而言，接下來的6到8個月將非常忙碌。他們都 需要盡快開始各自的RFP流程，以便最遲在2021年第三季度之前 選定營運商合作夥伴。 而在營運商的選擇時機上——最佳預測未來表現的依據是其 過往的表現。鑒於迄今為止該過程中的延遲，再多一個理由延遲 整個進程也就不足為奇。如若延遲果真發生，那麼東京、愛知、千 葉及北海道等潛在競爭者，甚至其他地區，更有可能加入競標賽 道。 在向中央政府提交標書之後，何時會得知誰人中標？IR之門 又在何時才能真正開啟，首個籌碼會在何時擲出？要待整個流程 順暢之後方見分曉。 在抉擇出營運商、選定地址以及將第一個籌碼放在綠色賭桌 上之前，尚有許多步驟：需要經過國家、縣、地方的各級批准，還有 管機構的協商、融資問題、公眾諮詢。一些專家預計，由於日本嚴 格的建築要求和勞務保護，日本的建築時間比通常的要多花費約 50％。此外，由於相關規則的制約，物業不能分期開業，必須在剪 綵之前全部建成。日本政府表示，目前的目標是在二十年代的後 五年開放首個綜合度假村，但綜合考慮下來，拖到三十年代完成 也不是不可能。 誰人？ 值得一提的是，出於各種原因，拉斯維加斯四大IR營運商中 的三家——凱撒、拉斯維加斯金沙、永利渡假村——已經退出日本 IR的競標。原因包括對現行及可能的法規及投資水平的考量、對投 資回報率的擔憂、以及在行業面臨艱難時刻的當下希望更加專注