Inside Asian Gaming

IAG OCT 2020年10月 亞博匯 74 COLUMNISTS be created in a country where the domestic savings rate is the highest in the world. That project returns there may not exceed Macau’s early successes is irrelevant given the limited number of remaining investable countries in Asia. In terms of new emerging markets for casino gaming enterprises, only Thailand remains as a jurisdiction and market that can sustain another billion dollar integrated resort – and Thailand currently has no plans to allow legal casino gaming or develop a regulatory framework that would give any visibility to potentially interested casino investors. Still, tough questions need to be asked of some of Asia’s major casino operators whose business models are heavily weighted towards the VIP junket segment, including those that have already had run-ins with the Chinese government. Crown Resorts, for instance, is in themidst of finishing its AU$2.4 billion (US$1.56 billion) ultra-luxury hotel development at Barangaroo in Sydney, Australia. The AU$6.9 million (US$4.9million) development cost for each of its 349-rooms and suites far exceeds any other major IR development and will be heavily reliant on Chinese VIP play to be successful. Compare Wynn Palace’s US$2.4 million development cost per room while understanding that one of Macau’s most luxurious casinos was also the most expensive of its time. How Crown will be able to generate enough cash flow to justify their investment is anyone’s guess if they amongst others will be challenged in their marketing efforts to an increasingly regulated Chinese VIP market. It certainly won’t come from domestic demand alone and especially while considering ongoing travel restrictions. Their shareholders would be wise to ask on what basis did we decide to create the most expensive casino in the world (on a per room basis) and what are we really prepared to do to make our investment perform? The interesting thing about the Asia IR sector and the reason I have a keen interest is that it is a known quantity. It is a world where winners and losers can be easily identified based on their respective 會帶來非凡的機遇。首先，在該國將會出現三個都會地區，它們的 本地儲蓄率將會是世界最高。即使在那裏的項目回報不能超越澳 門早期的輝煌成績亦不重要，因為在亞洲內可以投資的國家已是 寥寥可數。對於娛樂場博彩企業而言的新興市場，就只有泰國是 唯一一個司法管轄區及市場可以容納另一個十億元級別的綜合 度假村。而泰國現在並無計劃允許合法博彩出現在當地，或發展 出一套可能讓潛在有興趣的賭場投資者看到前景的監管框架。 但無論如何，一些亞洲區內非常依賴貴賓市場區塊的主要娛 樂場營運商都需要嚴肅面對一系列問題，包括那些已經與中國政 府有所衝突的公司。就以皇冠度假酒店集團為例，該營運商正在 完成興建價值24億澳元（15.6億美元）、位於澳洲悉尼Barangaroo 的超豪華酒店開發項目。其349間客房及套房，每間就用上690萬 澳元（490萬美元），超越了其他主要IR開發項目，並將非常依賴中 國貴賓玩家以獲取成功。對比起來，永利皇宮每間客房的發展開 支為240萬美元。而且值得一提的是，該度假村是當時澳門最豪華 的娛樂場之一，亦是最為昂貴的。如果皇冠在日益受到監管的中 國貴賓市場內採取的推廣工作遭遇困難的話，實在很難知道到底 它如何能夠產生足夠現金流來令到如此程度的投資變得合理。可 以肯定的是，如此龐大的收入並不能單單以本地需求滿足，特別 是考慮到現有的旅遊限制。這些公司的股東將需要質問：到底他 們是基於甚麼原因去決定建造出一間(以單一客房造價計算)全世 界最貴的賭場，以及他們到底預備要做甚麼令到這項投資出現回 報？ 亞洲IR業界最有趣以及最吸引我的一點，就是它的那種昭然 若揭。這裏的贏家和輸家可以通過它們各自的企業策略和商業模 式被清楚分出。而在一個轉變來得特別快的環境中，成功的企業 將會有興趣嘗試新事物，並且不會完全依賴從前可行的那一套。 雖然那段在亞洲的娛樂博彩界別裏產生寡頭式投資回報的 年代已經過去，但機遇其實依然存在。亞洲博彩業者某程度上在 過去這些年來都過得太過無風無浪，在未有完全帶來獨特產品的 情況下依然能夠賺取巨額利潤。貴賓博彩依然是一樣非常商品化 的事情。那些能夠在下一個十年取得成功的公司，將會是那些可 以從新冠肺炎大流行中恢復得最好的。這就需要賭場營運商們繼 續努力，真正了解那逐漸多元的既得利益者們，同時創造出一個 顧客真正享受，並且能創造更多價值的方案，從而驅動一個會帶 來正常市場回報的可持續業務 。