Inside Asian Gaming

IAG OCT 2020年10月 亞博匯 24 COVER STORY To jumpstart travel, the Macau Government Tourism Office and the six casino concessionaires launched a mainland marketing campaign with special promotions for visitors. Observers expect visa issuance will be back to pre-COVID normal by the middle of October. GOODBYE LBITDA? Analysts believe gaming revenue will grow as visitors return. Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Managing Director Praveen Choudhary forecasts October GGR will be down 70% from last year’s US$3.3 billion, Macau’s highest gaming revenue month of 2019. JP Morgan Head of Asian Gaming, Leisure and Education DS Kim is more optimistic, forecasting GGR down 55% to 60%. “This is an important mark, as most operators can print positive EBITDA with break-even points hovering at 35% to 45% of 2019 levels,” Kim writes in a report with analysts Derek Choi and Jeremy An. For the full fourth quarter, Sanford Bernstein Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky estimates recovery accelerating to a 40% decline from last year’s US$9 billion. JP Morgan’s Kim sees a fourth quarter decline of 40% to 45%, with 2021 revenue down 15% in the first quarter, 10% in the second quarter and back to 2019 levels in the third quarter. At the other end of spectrum, The InnovationGroup Senior Vice President, International Operations Planning & Analysis Michael Zhu projects fourth quarter GGR down at least two-thirds, “more likely in the 70% to 75% range.” “I remain less than optimistic about Macau,” Klebanow Consulting Principal Andrew Klebanow says. “Macau GGR levels will not recover to pre- pandemic levels until there is a safe and effective vaccine coursing through the veins of 70% of the population. In all likelihood that will not occur until sometime in 2022, with gaming revenues returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023.” Adds Zhu, “It’ll probably take more than a year to see a full recovery, with success in vaccines and/or cure medicines, but then the upcoming retendering “Macau GGR levels will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until there is a safe and effective vaccine coursing through the veins of 70% of the population. In all likelihood that will not occur until sometime in 2022.” – Andrew Klebanow 「除非有一種安全有效地疫苗可以令70％的人 口接受注射，否則澳門的博彩收入水平將無法恢 復到大流行前的水平，現時的情況可能會持續至 2022年。」 – Andrew Klebanow 丹利亞太區董事總經理Praveen Choudhary預測，10月的博彩總 收入將比去年同期的33億美元下降70％，去年10月是2019年澳 門博彩收入最高的一個月。 摩根大通的亞洲博彩、休閒及教育主管DS Kim則更為樂觀， 他預測GGR將按年下降55％至60％。 Kim與分析師Derek Choi和Jeremy An共同撰寫的報告中表 示：「這是一個重要的標誌，因為大多數運營商可以實現正向的 EBITDA，盈虧的平衡點徘徊在2019年水平的35％至45％之間。」 Sanford Bernstein的高級分析師Vitaly Umansky則預計，整 個第四季度的復甦速度將較去年的90億美元減少40％。而摩根大 通Kim則認為，第四季度的收入將減少40％至45％，2021年第一 季度收入將減少15％，第二季度減少10%，並將在第三季度時恢 復至2019年的水平。 但另一方面，創新集團國際業務規劃與分析及開發方向高級 副總裁朱靜瑋則認為，第四季度將至少下降三分之二，「很有可能 徘徊在70％到75％之間。」 「我對澳門並不那麼樂觀，」Klebanow Consulting負責 人Andrew Klebanow表示，「除非有一種安全有效的疫苗可 以令70％的人口接受注射，否則澳門的博彩收入水平將無法 恢復到大流行前的水平。現時的情況可能會持續至2022年，