Inside Asian Gaming

IAG JUN 2020年6月 亞博匯 78 COLUMNISTS T he Innovation Group has been closely monitoring the impact of COVID-19 on the global gaming industry and exploring the potential recovery patterns. Despite wide variation in potential outcomes and differing epidemiological views on the extent and duration of containment of the coronavirus, knowing the baseline prospects for recovery in a market can assist in making the right decisions at the right time, with specific local market assumptions and emerging data on customer sentiment taken into account. Beginning with the US regional markets, we have been tracking and are positioned to provide recovery guidance for specific destination and international markets. In addition, we have tracked online gaming trends separately in the wake of the coronavirus. Over the course of developing the tool, we have identified key demand, supply and other factors that are important in making strategic operating or capital expense decisions: DEMAND CONSIDERATIONS Employment and Income: Do people have jobs and money to spend (especially for discretionary spending)? Although there is no precedent of the magnitude of COVID-19, this factor is quantifiable to a degree based on recovery trends from the 2008-09 Great Recession. In the case of Asian gaming, while most major Asian feeder markets have not experienced the same level of infection as the US, global recessionary effects are likely in the coming quarters, which would affect disposable income and discretionary spend. Consumer sentiment: Will consumers be more cautious in their spending even if they have the means? This factor is more subjective, albeit quantifiable to a degree through consumer confidence measurements. Customer perception of safety: Will previous gamers continue to avoid public spaces like casino resorts, and for how long? Again, there is no modern precedent to COVID-19. But air passenger trends following 9/11 can inform to some extent. Additionally, T he Innovation Group一直都在緊密地留意著新冠疫 情對於環球博彩市場的衝擊，以及探討可能的復甦模 式。雖然最後結果可能迥異，而且在阻止新冠病毒蔓 延一事上，措施的強度和所用時間在病毒學上都有不 同觀點，但如果知道一個市場復甦的基本展望的話， 將有助在考慮關於個別地方市場的揣測以及客戶情緒的 數據下， 在正確的時間作出正確的選擇。 從在美國的各個區域市場開始，我們一直都在進行追蹤，並 把自己定位到為個別目的地或國際市場提供關於復甦的指導。另 外我們也在新冠病毒來襲的初期分別追蹤網上博彩的動向。在發 展出工具的過程中，我們亦找出了主要的需求、供應，以及其他在 作出戰略營運或資金運用的決定時重要的因素： 需求考量 就業與收入： 到底人們還有沒有工作以及可以花費(特別是可 以自由作出的花費)的金錢呢？雖然新冠疫情帶來的影響史無前 例，但在這個因素方面，某程度上亦可以根據2008至09年大蕭條 的復甦動向來量化。以亞洲博彩為例，雖然大部分主要的亞洲客 源市場都沒有經歷與美國一般的高感染率，但全球衰退的影響很 有可能在未來數季出現，並將影響到可支配收入及可自由作出的 花費。 客戶情緒： 即使客戶有能力花費，但他們會否變得更加小心 呢？這個因素比較主觀，雖然某程度上可以通過消費者信心的量 度方式去量化。 客戶對於安全的觀感： 之前的賭客會否繼續避開包括娛樂場 度假村等的公眾地方呢？如果會的話，這又將持續多久？在這方 面同樣於現代沒有其他事件可以與新冠疫情比擬，但在911事件 後航空乘客的趨勢卻能在某程度上給予一些答案。另外之前有一 段很短的時間(為亞洲而言是一月尾到二月頭，而為美國而言則是 三月的首兩週)有每週的統計數據，可以為行業集體關閉之前的博 彩行為帶來一些洞見。 供給考量 社交距離與座位數量限制： 為了全面阻截新冠病毒蔓延，娛