Inside Asian Gaming

IAG APR 2020年4月 亞博匯 27 封面故事 into that. I don’t, the operators don’t and even the government doesn’t know.” Before the DICJ released its February GGR figures in early March, Bernstein issued a note in which it outlined three possible scenarios for Macau’s recovery. The first “bull” case scenario assumes amore optimistic outcome in which the rebound began strongly in 2H20, leaving GGR to fall 11% in 2020 and EBITDA by between 12% and 26%. More conservative is a scenario in which infections peak around early summer followed by a 3Q20 recovery, pushing GGR for the year down around 21% and EBITDA by 33% to 42%. Finally, the “bear” case scenario in which softness carries throughout the year would result in a 43% fall in 2020 GGR and EBITDA declines of 57% to 86%. Looking back on those scenarios weeks later, Umansky notes, “It could be materially worse, I doubt it is going to be materially better. “But those pathways are all pretty different. You go from GGR being down for the year by low teens to GGR being down in the 20s to GGR being down 50+. All of those are possible, so it just becomes guesswork – if you talk to 10 people you get 10 different answers.” Complicating attempts to predict how and when the coronavirus impact might ease has been the rapid speed with which the situation is changing globally – not so much day to day but more often hour by hour. China, for example, had begun easing restrictions on local residents, including those in Wuhan, by mid-March due to a massive decline in newly confirmed cases but was at the same time intensifying border controls due to new cases being imported from overseas. Indeed, in the days before publication it had become clear that the epicenter of COVID-19 was now the US and Europe, with most nations around the world now implementing their own variations on either the shutdown of non-essential services or a complete lockdown of its citizens. But in Macau, there has been talk behind the scenes that entry restrictions to mainland Chinese visitors may be eased sooner rather than later. Andrew Lee, Equity Analyst at Jefferies Equity Research, observed in a 23 March research note that the Chinese provinces of Hunan, Fujian and Jiangsu had gone 17, 19 and 27 days respectively at that time without any new COVID-19 cases and suggested an opening of the borders may be possible soon. 字之前，Bernstein曾發表了一份報告，預測了澳門經濟復甦的三 種可能情況。其一是「牛市」，預測了一個較為樂觀的結果，及將在 2020年下半年開始強勁反彈，全年GGR按年下降11%，EBITDA（ 稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤）下降12％至26％。另一個更加保守的預 測是，疫情將在夏初前後達到峰值，之後經濟在第三季度復甦，此 種情況下全年GGR將下降約21％，EBITDA將下降33％至42％。 第三個預測則是「熊市」即全年表現疲軟，如此，則2020年 GGR將下降43％，EBITDA將下降57％至86％。 數週之後當再度回顧這些情況時，Umansky指出，「情況可能 會更糟，我甚至懷疑情況是否會有實質上的好轉。」 「這些預測的結果大相徑庭。GGR從下降百分之十幾，到下 降百分之二十幾，到下降百分之五十幾，所有結果都是可能的，所 以現在只能是猜測——如果你和10個人去談這件事，會得到10個 不同的結果。 然而全球疫情發展速度之快，亦令到預測新冠疫情如何以 及何時得到緩解變得尤為困難——疫情不是每日發展迅速，而是 每小時都在變化。例如，由於新增確診病例大幅下降，截至三月中 旬，中國已經放鬆包括武漢在內的各地的限制，但同時由於大多 數新增病例從海外輸入，因此中國也開始加強了邊境管制。實際 上，在本文出版之時，現在COVID-19疫情的「震央」很明顯已經是 美國和歐洲。而全球大多數國家也紛紛實施了自己的防疫方案， 或者關閉非必要服務，或者對其公民實施全面社區隔離。 但在澳門，坊間一直有傳言稱，對內地遊客的入境限制可能 很快就會放鬆。 Jefferies Equity Research的股票分析師Andrew Lee在3月 23日發佈的一份研究報告中指出，彼時中國的湖南、福建及江蘇 省已經分別有17日、19日及27日未出現新增確診病例，並認為若 能保持這一趨勢，則很快會放開出入境管制。 「目前中國的自由行及旅行團簽注仍被暫停，但我們仍然認 為可以基於當地連續保持多少天的『零新增確診新冠病例』，對個 別地區放寬限制。」 「在赴澳遊客數最多的內地十大省市中，有六個都有新近確 診病例。廣東是關鍵，因為廣東赴澳遊客佔中國內地赴澳遊客總 數的33％，其中又有73％是通過自由行簽證入境澳門的。」 Lee預計2020年澳門博彩總收入將下降45％，到2021年將反 彈至33％左右，但即使是這個預測目前也需要修訂。就在本刊付