Inside Asian Gaming

JANUARY 2018 INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 35 “The United States is going to have to adjust to the reality that in the coming decades it is highly likely (though not quite inevitable) that China will usurp the US’ number one role in the world.” THE DISMAL OPTIMIST the entry of the United States – fortuitously a clone-offspring of democratic Britain – prevented total annihilation. Nobody wants 1914-1945 to happen again. History repeats The United States – today still the world’s global hegemon and policeman – faces the rise of a new and much larger global rival, the People’s Republic of China. The United States is going to have to adjust to the reality that in the coming decades it is highly likely (though not quite inevitable) that China will usurp the US’ number one role in the world. If China does enough things right, there is little the US can do to stop the Chinese ascent. America’s only “hope” is that China will not do enough things right. China is obsessed with technology, getting rich and reclaiming its historical role in the world. Through initiatives such as the Made in China 2025 program, China has clearly indicated that its principle objective for its economy is to become number one in technology. Technology will raise the living standards of the Chinese people and ensure the position of China in the world. Make no mistake. The big US/China differences in the future won’t be about steel or territorial disputes. They will be about technology. The China worriers in the US will seek to halt the progress in Chinese tech. In my opinion, the US can slow the Chinese technological advance with trade wars and petty bans on Chinese investment and the like, but it cannot stop it. Moreover, such policies would be disruptive to the US and Chinese economies alike. The conundrum: Civilian uses – not military – are driving new technology In the past, there was a clear division between military and civilian technology. The military could develop its own technology in secret for things like nuclear bombs, laser-guided bombs or stealth fighters. The US could keep China or anybody else from acquiring this technology. But today, new technology is being driven by civilian rather than military uses. The civilian sector gets things first. There are no secrets. Just patents. Therein lies the problem for those who would try to cut off the technology flows from the US to China. Today it is computer games, autonomous vehicles, virtual and augmented reality, genomics, AI,