Inside Asian Gaming

January 2013 | INSIDE ASIAN GAMING 9 taught to schoolchildren. This is a movement also supported by Mr Abe, who has said that those sentenced to death by the ’46-’48 tribunal were not war criminals in the eyes of Japanese law. He is a former leader of the revisionist Japanese Society of History Textbook Reform. His maternal grandfather, who was prime minister from 1957-60, spent time in prison for his service in the Tojo government during WorldWar II. Arguments over the country’s problematic past were a recurring theme in the fiasco of Mr Abe’s 2006-07 stint as prime minister, which lasted all of 365 days. He cannot have forgotten the damage they caused. Certainly, ordinary Japanese have not. While he is described by the BBC as “far more right wing than most of his predecessors,” he knows the victory that delivered the LDP and its New Komeito partners a solid 325-seat majority in the House of Representatives last month has more to do with the ineptitude displayed by the DPJ the last three years than with any abiding faith in the LDP’s ability to fix the economy, which is laboring in the throes of its third recession in five years. But this is the task confronting him, and alienating the country’s largest trading partner and a critical source of inbound tourism is not going to get him there. Then again, maybe for the average Chinese a fun-filled holiday in Tokyo with a bit of baccarat on the side is more meaningful than redressing historical wrongs that are fast disappearing into antiquity, leaving fewer and fewer citizens of either country with any personal memory of them. Mr Abe has not advanced an opinion on casino legalization one way or the other. That doesn’t mean he isn’t aware of the contribution the industry can make to an economic revival. Assuming he’s harboring no illusions about the enormity of the challenges he faces, he must know that mapping a successful future for the country will not be accomplished by dithering over how to reinvent its past. As it stands, the political realities appear to have whittled the casino question down to two venues, one in Tokyo, one in Osaka. Investment analysts Union Gaming Research Macau speculate that licenses for smaller operations could be dangled before economically challenged areas like Okinawa or popular holiday destinations like Hokkaido in exchange for broader backing of an IR bill in the House of Representatives. But even confined to Tokyo and Osaka the revenue potential could amount to a combined US$10 billion, implying a tax windfall of upwards of $2.5 billion and a return on investment of 20%, sufficient in CLSA’s view to justify $7 billion-$8 billion in capital outlay per resort. Should the economy show enough improvement in the first half to win the upper house for the LDP and present Mr Abe with an almost unassailable mandate, this could move a whole lot closer to reality, and sooner rather than later. Arguments over the country’s problematic past were a recurring theme in the fiasco of Shinzo Abe’s 2006-07 stint as prime minister. He cannot have forgotten the damage they caused. While he is described by the BBC as “far more right wing than most of his predecessors,” he knows the victory that delivered the LDP and its partners a majority in the House of Representatives has more to do with the ineptitude displayed by the DPJ the last three years than with any abiding faith in the LDP’s ability to fix the economy. COVER STORY Manzamo, Okinawa There are analysts who speculate that casino licenses for smaller operations could be dangled before economically challenged areas like Okinawa in exchange for broader backing of an IR bill in the House of Representatives. But even if confined to Tokyo and Osaka the revenue potential could amount to a combined US$10 billion, implying a tax windfall of upwards of $2.5 billion and a return on investment sufficient to justify $7 billion-$8 billion in capital outlay per resort.