Bernstein has lowered its gross gaming revenue forecast for June on the back of Macau’s COVID-19 outbreak, with GGR now estimated to be down by 91% on June 2019 and average daily revenue (ADR) down 31% on May 2022. The brokerage had only a week earlier predicted June ADR to be 11% higher than May’s ADR of MOP$108 million (US$13 million).
In their weekly Macau gaming update, Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Shirley Yang report GGR of MOP$93 million (US$11.6 million) in the week from 13 to 19 June, essentially flat week-on-week, but note that revenues are set to nosedive given Macau’s new COVID outbreak which had confirmed 34 cases as of Monday afternoon. This is the SAR’s largest outbreak since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.
“In accordance with China’s ‘dynamic- zero’ COVID policy, the Macau government has already implemented full-scale testing on all residents, shut down various parts of the city, and tightened [the] border policy,” they said.
“These measures are set [to see GGR] plummet close to zero for at least the next week, and likely [will have a] longer impact on [the] next few weeks.”
The reduced forecast, which suggests June’s GGR will come in at around MOP$2.24 billion (US$277 million) with an ADR of MOP$75 million (US$9.4 million), includes a qualifier that GGR could be lower still depending on travel restrictions and measures.
Month-to-date, June GGR is estimated at MOP$1.9 billion (US$234 million) with ADR of MOP$100 million (US$12 million), down 87% compared to June 2019 ADR, 54% lower than June 2021 ADR and 7% below May 2022 ADR.
