A lack of clarity over any potential improvement in Macau’s GGR outlook has Bernstein analysts estimating an ongoing decline in revenue of 80% through the month of March.
The bleak outlook comes as the brokerage estimated Macau’s GGR at MOP$2.1 billion in February at an average daily rate of MOP$255 million to MOP$260 million – down 65% year-on-year.
According to analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu, there is no clear indication that the decline will ease anytime soon.
“IVS and group visas into Macau are suspended and most transport is severely disrupted with most airlines cancelling or limiting flights into Macau and surrounding airports,” they said.
“We estimate February to be down 90% and March potentially to be down 80% (assuming no significant improvement in travel). The operators we have spoken with do not see any clarity on timing of recovery at this time.”
Bernstein noted that VIP has been stronger than mass since re-opening, albeit with high volatility, “which is not surprising.”
“Forecasts for the near term (i.e. 1H20) are largely guesses at this time, with the biggest variables now being when travel restrictions from China will be lifted,” the analysts said.