Macau’s gross gaming revenue reached MOP$14.8 billion for the first 18 days of August, including a daily rate of around MOP$870 million in the seven days from 12 to 18 August, according to analysts.
That figure represents a significant increase on the MOP$750 million to MOP$790 million recorded over the first two weeks of the month, with JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Jeremy An and Christine Wang noting this was “despite ongoing social unrest in Hong Kong, hence supporting our view that it’s probably more bark than bite when it comes to actual GGR impact.”
JP Morgan said volumes in both VIP and mass improved last week, although soft VIP luck keeps its August GGR forecast at a year-on-year decline of between 4% and 6%.
Sanford C Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu also note that “GGR came back strong last week just before summer holidays are about to wrap up,” pushing the average daily rate for the month back up to MOP$822 million – down 4% on August 2018 but 4% better sequentially.
“For August, we are estimating GGR growth to be -2% to -4% year-on-year,” they added.
“VIP volume is estimated to have improved by mid-to-high single digits % while hold was slightly lighter than normal. Mass also grew at mid-single digits % month-on-month.
“Delivering positive growth in August would need to rely on outsized VIP volumes and higher hold – something not in our forecast at this time.”