Macau is set to plummet down the Asian GDP leaderboard in 2018 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting a sharp decline in real GDP growth to 6.3%, well down on the 9.1% growth the SAR enjoyed in 2017.
The IMF’s prediction for Macau is in line with widespread downgrades contained within a report issued on Tuesday and sees India, China and Vietnam all move ahead of Asia’s gaming hub for the year ahead. According to the IMF, India is on track to lead all Asian nations with GDP growth of 7.3% this year and 7.4% in 2019, a steady increase from real of 6.7% in 2017.
China and Vietnam will both realize GPD growth of 6.6% in 2018 with China shrinking to 6.2% in 2019 and Vietnam declining slightly to 6.5%.
Most regional economies will slide from 2017 numbers, the primary exceptions being Australia, moving from a 2.2% in 2017 to 3.2% in 2018, and Thailand which is forecast to grow 4.6% in 2018 versus 3.9% in 2017.
The gloomy figures reflect protectionist policies adopted by the United States, according to Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor of IMF.
“Our 2019 growth projection for China is also lower than in April, given the latest round of US tariffs on Chinese imports, as are our projections for India. Owing to these changes, our international
growth projections for both this year and next are downgraded to 3.7% percent, 0.2 percentage point below our last assessments,” he said in the report.
“At the global level, recent data shows weakening in trade, manufacturing and investment. Overall, world economic growth is still solid compared with earlier this decade, but it appears to have plateaued.”
The IMF report also forecasts that the unemployment rate in Macau will remain steady at 2% through 2018 and 2019. Consumer prices in Macau are expected to grow 2.2% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019.