Inside Asian Gaming

8 is little more than a kangaroo court originally set up by the generals to hound Mr Thaksin out of office and currently aimed at pursuing him beyond the political grave. Diversionary tactic Mr Thaksin’s political opponents suggest the Committee is a necessary and timely reassertion of the state’s rightful authority against politicians’ business interests. It is possible Mr Samak’s casino plan could divert attention from this wrangling and reframe the gambling debate as an economic question rather than a political one. On the tourism issue—coups d’etat and the occasional tsunami notwithstanding— Thailand is likely to continue attracting large numbers of European and North American visitors. There may, though, be some clouds on the tourism horizon. The coup, the continuing violence in the Muslim south and the recent bombings in the capital Bangkok have reminded the world that Thailand remains a volatile, stratified society without a deep rooted system of civil government. By 2010, squeaky clean and politically stable Singapore will be providing fresh competition for Asian visitors’ cash in the form of two integrated casino resorts with shopping malls and an accompanying Universal Studios theme park. Thailand may need to raise its game with casino entertainment if it wants to attract the increasing numbers of middle class Indians and Chinese looking for leisure breaks outside their own borders The taxation argument for domestic casinos also appears strong. Thousands of wealthy Thais are already splashing their cash in casinos over the border in Cambodia. The number of Thai VIPs with a credit facility of up toUS$50,000 visitingNagaCorp casinos in Cambodia rose 47% year-on-year in the first half of 2007. Even more money is being lost to the Thai tax system within Thailand thanks to under-the-table bets on illegal lotteries and sports’ books that are thought to bring in billions of US dollars annually for criminal syndicates. Status quo One of the challenges in reforming Thailand’s gaming system is that vested interests among the political and business elite may actually be involved in the illegal syndicates currently benefiting from the lack of legitimate competition.This certainly happens in Vietnam, where in a recent criminal case involving football betting, one of the ringleaders was identified as a vice director of Vietnam Expressways Corporation, the company set up by the government to build and manage the country’s new road system. An optimist might think that legalisation of casinos in Thailand—possibly through the introduction of foreign operators answering to outside shareholders and with international standards of corporate governance—might be an important step in breaking the link between gambling revenues, crime and political factionalism. A pessimist might think it was an opportunity for a populist politician to do deals with political cronies and set up casinos with local business partners as a cashmachine for political funding independent of the rest of the taxation system.Given the sorry history of Thailand’s Government Lottery Office, this may not be too far fetched. Opinion poll In this fervid atmosphere, it’s difficult to know the true motivations of either those supporting or opposing casinos in Thailand. Days after Mr Samak’s announcement, the Bangkok Post published details of a poll conducted by the Abac Poll Research Center of the Assumption University in Thailand. It suggested more than half of Thais questioned opposed the casino plan. The sample was based on interviews with 2,726 people in 18 provinces. According to the survey, 56.4% of respondents opposed casinos, and only 31.9% approved. All polls should be treated with some scepticism. It’s always worth asking who commissionedasurveyandforwhatpurpose. Methodology is particularly important, including what questions are asked and how they are framed.Thailand has a history of rival poll results varyingwildlyevenwhen tackling a common topic, leading to questions about standards of information gathering and possible political manipulation. An example of this phenomenon occurred in February 2006, when a poll conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University suggested “about 58%” of respondents supported then caretaker prime minister Mr Thaksin’s decision to